Say it with me, everyone!

XM and Sirius, sittin' in a tree
M-E-R-G-I-N-G!

Some Tony Stewart fans over at Club Smoke were wondering what the new satellite radio merger means to us as customers. We don't want our access to Tony's radio show to be more difficult than it already is! We gotta have our weekly Tony fix! Besides the race. Oh, and qualifying. Um, and happy hour on SPEED. And the pre-race. Er. Yeah.

We TS fans are in a dark, scary place right now. How will it affect us? Whatever shall we do? What does it all mean, dammit!

Well, somebody asked, so I told them:

I think it will change the whole payment structure, and in the end some subscribers will pay more and some less, depending on how they subscribe.

The subscription plan that's been proposed is "al la carte." That is, subscribers choose which channels they want, or possibly groups or categories of channels. Effectively, what is being created right now is the "Ma Bell" of satellite radio, with competition encouraged immediately.

When a technology is new, generally the first company on the scene that determines the standards. Or in this case, the first two.

Here's what I think will happen:

1) The "merger" will allow for the standardization of satellite broadcasting. One standard, one radio, etc so now your car will come equipped with a standard radio that can receive ALL satellite stations: Sirius, XM, and all new competitors. You won't need a new radio installed every few years.

2) The merger will actually create three companies: those who develop the equipment and broadcast the signal (let's call it XSiriusMcrosbyStillsnashandSometimesYoung), and two (or even more) companies which will sell their programming to the broadcasters. It will pit Sirius channels (which, for instance, would be considered like HBO on cable) against XM (which is like Showtime). Then there will be several categories of channels, which at first will be a part of their original company's lineup, but eventually might become entirely separate.

3) Other companies will be allowed to broadcast satellite also, starting at with the same frequency band, but later on different frequencies. This is what happened with cell phones, and why there was analog, then digital, etc. At first, all cell companies were using the SAME broadcast/wireless equipment, and just sharing it. Then as companies developed better, and way cooler equipment, they put in their own broadcast network that hooked their cells and switches into the landlines, and switched their users over.

Soon there will be one SatelliteRadio subscriber service, but later there will be others--I'm pretty sure this will be required under anti-monopoly laws. Legislators will give a certain amount of time during which they hope a competing company will form, just like MCI was formed in the 1980s and competed with AT&T for long distance. Sprint was also competing, but they didn't own any phone "trunk" lines--they leased them from MCI and AT&T. No customers needed new phone lines inside their house, but they had the option to pay someone else for their phone calls.

If no one steps up to compete, eventually the XM/Sirius broadcast company will be required to divest and compete against itself, but the same programs will be offered from either service. However, I'm sure there will be one or more competitors. I'm pretty sure that several existing companies have already developed their technology (think: any existing cellular or cable TV provider) and have been waiting for this opportunity. These new companies will also offer the same options for stations.

So two years from now, I might be listening to Tony's radio show on my home stereo through a service that's bundled with my Cingular cellular service, but other people might be listening to him in their car through their OnStar service, and others might listen through a brain implant brought to them by Bob's Implants Emporium and Media service of Emporia, Kansas. (Lots of open space in Kansas; they NEED satellite radio.)

It's a world of possibilities. I do know one thing for sure: It's going to really suck for a few months.

So, do I buy that new radio I need or not?

Here are two answers from the merger FAQ, plus my commentary:

[quote]7. Should I buy a radio today or wait for a dual-service radio? I want to buy a second radio; should I wait for the new models?

There's never been a better time to be a SIRIUS or XM subscriber. Any radios or other equipment that subscribers currently use will be fully supported by SIRIUS and XM for many years to come. Furthermore, following the merger, existing radios will all be able to receive a mix of programming from both services.


8. Which company's satellites will the merged company use? How long will you operate both satellite systems?

Each of our satellite systems will continue to operate for many years to come providing service to the millions of radios in use today.[/quote]


IMHO: They will achieve a perceived "merger" by each service broadcasting the other's programming in addition to their own. They will keep doing this indefinitely. The "a la carte" or bundled services will be achieved with the old equipment using new computer code on their old system and satellites, which were created with this adaptability in mind.

Concurrently, they will develop a third, merged system (including billing, access codes, etc.) which they will entice all their current subscribers over to...kind of like when our cell phone companies got us all to switch to digital from analog. A new, really cool radio. New car--well, they'll just switch you over to the new service which will seem just like the old; you won't care which part of the satellite and which computer is sending your signal, as long as it's the same or better quality and doesn't cost more.

This third, merged system may actually be a "let's just switch all the XM people onto the Sirius system" or vice-versa. Some companies think it's cheaper to do it that way. However, evidence (AT&T Cellular merging with Cingular) suggests that this will end in an internal tug-of-war. A third, brand-new system sometimes works better. Point is, we as customers won't know, and frankly, we wont' care.

You can keep your old radio OR get a new one: they'll both work for as long as you want your service. However, they will be introducing new products in (I would guess) less than 18 months which will make you want to buy a new radio.


In case anyone wonders if I'm just talking out my ass, throwing my projections around: Yeah, I kind of am. This is JUST my opinion of how things will go (unless otherwise attributed) based on my experience in the telecom industry, where I was a researcher (that's another name for corporate librarian) for years. I had just started in the industry when the FCC auctioned off new bandwidth for the development of new kinds of cell phones and services, and then with the actual development of the new equipment and sevices, and witness (and get burned by) some of the spectacular failures. I worked for several companies, doing the same job. Looking back, it was really cool to experience! I could blather on forever about it. But I won't. Lucky you!

Addendum: Check out what the asshats at Clear Channel think. Or as the Jesus of Cheese says of them: They can be accused of posteriorial haberdashery.